Machine Tool Industry: Strong demand for CNC machine tools

The growth in investment in fixed assets remained stable, and investment in equipment and tools remained stable in the proportion of investment in fixed assets. Since implementing the tightening policy, there has been no apparent decline in investment in fixed assets, and the growth rate has remained above 20%. The proportion of purchases of equipment and appliances in fixed asset investment remained at around 20%, and remained stable over the long term. In the first four months of 2008, the purchase of equipment and appliances increased by 23.4% year-on-year, accounting for 20.5% of the fixed assets investment.

Downstream industries such as automobiles, aerospace, and railways continue to promote strong demand for machine tools. The automotive industry consumes about 40% of machine tools. At present, China's vehicle manufacturing machine tools are still mainly imported, and there is great potential for import substitution in the future. The rapid development of China's aviation and shipping industries will also stimulate demand for large-scale, heavy-duty, and precision CNC machine tools. In the railway field, it is expected that the investment in infrastructure will exceed 700 billion in 08-10, the purchase amount of locomotives and vehicles will be 200 billion yuan, and the transportation equipment will be upgraded and reconstructed 55 billion yuan, which will drive a large number of machine tool demands.

Import substitution, export acceleration is a new growth point of CNC machine tools. In China, the demand for CNC machine tools has grown faster than that of ordinary machine tools. Especially high-end CNC machine tools still need a lot of imports. The demand for CNC machine tools in China is very strong, and the output is far from meeting the demand, and it is mainly based on low-end products. The export of CNC machine tools is also mainly at the low end, but it has gradually revealed the huge advantages of Chinese-made CNC machine tools in terms of cost performance, and exports have started to increase. Rising raw material prices and appreciation of the renminbi have a slight impact on the industry. At present, each machine tool company has implemented a price increase of about 3% or more for its products. When the cost rises by 10%, the impact on gross profit margin will be within 2%. The appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar depreciated against major currencies such as the euro, and the ratio of exports to the United States was only 14.98%, while the export growth rate to other countries and regions was accelerating. The negative impact of RMB appreciation on China's machine tool industry's exports was limited. The operating conditions of listed companies have remained good. Although the net profit growth of major listed companies in the first quarter of 2008 decreased compared with the growth rate in the first three quarters of 2007, it still remained close to 60%. The growth rate of main business income accelerated from the fourth quarter of 2007, indicating that the downstream demand for machine tools was strong, and the governance structure of major listed companies was increasingly perfected, and the operating leverage was reduced. No net profit growth in the first half of 2007 was much higher than the main business. Business revenue growth.

The machine tool industry is on the rise

As the basis of the machine tool industry, the development of the industry is closely related to the growth rate of investment in fixed assets. Downstream demand for machine tools, including general equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, and auto manufacturing, has maintained a good investment growth rate, and demand for machine tools has remained strong. In domestic demand, CNC machine tools are beginning to become mainstream and gradually replace ordinary machine tools. Some domestic enterprises can produce lower-end CNC machine tools, and high-end CNC machine tools are still mainly imported. With the accumulation of technology in domestic enterprises, the gap between international leading enterprises has been greatly reduced, the advantages of domestically-manufactured CNC machine tools in terms of cost performance have begun to appear, and the import and substitution of domestic demand has begun to accelerate. The proportion of CNC machine tools in exports is gradually increasing, and exports are starting to increase. . CNC machine tools are in a period of rising industry boom.

In terms of individual stocks, companies with significant advantages in the field of CNC machine tools can benefit from the booming domestic demand market and the gradually expanding overseas market. Key company recommendation:

Kunming Machine Tool: The highest rate of NC, the supply capacity is in short supply. The company has sufficient orders in 2008 and the overall gross profit margin is basically stable. With the commissioning of technological transformation projects, the production capacity in 2009 is expected to increase. The growth of performance is determined. We expect the company's earnings per share in 2008 and 2009 to be 0.71 and 1.04 yuan, respectively. The company benefited from China's industrial upgrading and will maintain its strong growth momentum in recent years. According to the PE valuation of 25 times in 2009, the target price in the 12 months is 25 yuan. Give "short-term - strongly recommended, long-term -A" rating.

Tianma shares: machine tools and wind turbine bearings are the main growth point

It is expected that the company's earnings per share in 2008 and 2009 will be 3.80 yuan and 4.64 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 125.87 yuan on March 18, the company's dynamic price-earnings ratio will be 33.12 times and 27.13 times respectively. The company has strong outreach expansion capabilities and is one of the few machinery manufacturing companies in China with the advantages of industrial chain integration. Considering that in the coming years, the company’s performance is still expected to continue rapid growth, we give the company “short-term—strong recommendation, long-term -A" investment rating.